Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 10.964727 12.567138 14.294553 16.291732 18.533622 20.968898 23.810796
2025-07-06 8.060795 10.106711 12.487874 15.450540 19.023398 23.177795 28.357725
2025-07-13 7.062937 9.371647 12.190550 15.860175 20.482580 26.081010 33.340243
2025-07-20 6.242685 8.718176 11.873537 16.149589 21.746064 28.769078 38.188460
2025-07-27 5.491952 8.027807 11.385696 16.099669 22.478274 30.731622 42.126077
2025-08-03 4.829118 7.367350 10.849948 15.901127 22.947976 32.323520 45.610186
2025-08-10 4.344508 6.893986 10.507624 15.906487 23.648623 34.209303 49.527823
2025-08-17 3.975977 6.544841 10.297441 16.059033 24.532058 36.354708 53.868381
2025-08-24 3.608745 6.155834 9.986765 16.024911 25.120738 38.088471 57.683994
2025-08-31 3.263538 5.763658 9.631858 15.884804 25.523671 39.550206 61.148811
2025-09-07 3.014473 5.499455 9.446845 15.978794 26.263374 41.512992 65.401573
2025-09-14 2.869736 5.392647 9.497270 16.434342 27.566641 44.352391 71.052361
2025-09-21 2.604209 5.059500 9.162668 16.262508 27.899091 45.773164 74.686271
2025-09-28 2.255113 4.544358 8.483678 15.476404 27.201445 45.572933 75.829443
2025-10-05 2.146274 4.452202 8.512994 15.867375 28.420061 48.394516 81.751747
2025-10-12 2.031337 4.336826 8.490731 16.163759 29.490524 51.018829 87.460654
2025-10-19 1.874698 4.125483 8.279171 16.111408 29.962952 52.690404 91.702005
2025-10-26 1.712920 3.887362 7.998707 15.913565 30.167330 53.921429 95.264591
2025-11-02 1.592930 3.721361 7.838272 15.918639 30.717463 55.737228 99.843281
2025-11-09 1.501341 3.605011 7.762270 16.071391 31.530545 58.019276 105.272377
2025-11-16 1.395650 3.447840 7.594098 16.037210 32.000401 59.728664 109.792737
2025-11-23 1.287611 3.274295 7.379254 15.897019 32.263746 61.084019 113.749430
2025-11-30 1.212606 3.166936 7.289119 15.991069 32.959663 63.212591 119.101136